The Buildup To War In Ukraine - Friday, February 18, 2022
February 18, 2023
On February 18 2022, a Friday, Russia voiced alarm over the sharp increase in shelling in Donbas:
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced alarm on Friday over a sharp increase in shelling in eastern Ukraine and accused the OSCE special monitoring mission of glossing over what he said were Ukrainian violations of the peace process.Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists have been fighting in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine since 2014 in a conflict that Kyiv says has claimed some 15,000 lives.
Washington and its allies have raised fears that the upsurge in violence in the Donbass could form part of a Russian pretext to invade Ukraine. Tensions are already high over a Russian military buildup to the north, east and south of Ukraine.
Moscow denies planning an invasion.
"We are very concerned by the reports of recent days - yesterday and the day before there was a sharp increase in shelling using weapons that are prohibited under the Minsk agreements," Lavrov said, referring to peace accords aimed at ending the conflict.
Militia of the Donbas republics started to evacuate civilians:
Russian-backed separatists packed civilians onto buses out of breakaway regions in east Ukraine on Friday, a shock turn in a conflict the West believes Moscow plans to use as justification for all-out invasion of its neighbour.Warning sirens blared in Donetsk after it and the other self-proclaimed "People's Republic" of Luhansk announced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people to Russia, with women, children and the elderly going first.
Hours later, a jeep exploded outside the rebel government building in the city of Donetsk, capital of the region of the same name. Reuters journalists saw the vehicle surrounded by shrapnel, a wheel tossed away by the blast. Russian media said it belonged to a militia leader.
The Ukrainian government said it was not planning any offensive or targeting civilians in any way.
There were lots of meetings and calls among 'western' leaders and Lavrov and Blinken agreed to meet:
Antony Blinken is to meet the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, next week, as the US secretary of state warned the crisis in Ukraine was a “moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people”.The US state department said on Thursday night that Blinken had accepted an invitation to meet Lavrov provided there was no invasion of Ukraine. The move provides hope that diplomatic channels remained open even as US warnings of an imminent invasion grow louder.
“If they do invade in the coming days, it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy,” said state department spokesperson Ned Price. Blinken said earlier on Thursday he had sent a letter to Lavrov proposing a meeting in Europe.
A fresh flurry of meetings between western leaders begins on Friday, with the US president, Joe Biden, hosting a call with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Britain, the European Union and Nato.
The US vice-president, Kamala Harris, is also due to arrive in Munich for several days of talks with global leaders including the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
The Russian president Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Russia's Security Council
The discussion focused on the situation around Ukraine and on growing tensions that are being provoked by external forces. The President briefed the meeting participants, in great detail, about his international contacts this week, including face-to-face meetings and telephone conversations. They also exchanged opinions on security guarantees for Russia.
Putin also had a meeting with the president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. In a following news conference both bemoaned the seemingly unreasonable behavior of their international counterparts.
Putin:Responding to a request from President Lukashenko, I talked about my recent meetings with foreign leaders on the provision by the US and NATO of long-term and legally binding security guarantees for Russia. We believe it is both logical and understandable that this issue also concerns our Belarussian allies.
We discussed the situation with Russia’s requests for the West, the most important of which concern NATO’s non-expansion, the non-deployment of strike weapons systems in close proximity to the Russian border, and the return of the bloc’s military potential and infrastructure in Europe to the state of 1997 when the Russia-NATO Founding Act was signed.
As I said earlier, unfortunately, the United States and other members of the alliance do not appear ready to sincerely consider these three pivotal elements of our initiative. At the same time, they have advanced a number of ideas of their own concerning European security, specifically, intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles, and military transparency, which Russia is open to discussing. We are ready to continue the negotiation track provided that all items are considered in their entirety, in conjunction with Russia’s main proposals, which are an unconditional priority for us.
President Lukashenko and I touched on the intra-Ukrainian conflict as well. The settlement process remains stalled; despite all our efforts, neither the contacts at the level of advisers to the leaders of the Normandy Format countries nor the consultations with our partners are helping.
Kiev is not complying with the Minsk Agreements and, in particular, is strongly opposed to a direct dialogue with Donetsk and Lugansk. Kiev is essentially sabotaging the agreements on amending the Constitution, on the special status of Donbass, on local elections and on amnesty – on all the key items in the Minsk Agreements. Besides, basically, human rights are massively and systematically violated in Ukraine, and discrimination against the Russian-speaking population is being fixed at the legislative level.
The President of Belarus and I agreed that the Minsk Agreements are the key to restoring civil peace in Ukraine and relieving tension around that country. All Kiev needs to do is sit down at the negotiating table with representatives of Donbass and agree on political, military, economic and humanitarian measures to end the conflict. The sooner this happens, the better. Unfortunately, right now, we are witnessing the opposite – the situation in Donbass is worsening.
Lukashenko:
Considering the urgency of the situation, the President and I have devoted much attention today to this issue and discussed potential joint actions as a response to the aggressive behaviour of our Western partners. I would like to emphasise once again: nobody wants a war, or even an aggravation of the situation or any conflict. We, Russians and Belarusians, do not need this.
As people well versed in this issue, you probably understand that this no longer depends even on our neighbours, including Ukraine. You also see clearly who the escalation of tensions near our borders depends on. For the first time in decades, we have found ourselves on the threshold of a conflict that could, unfortunately, pull much of the entire continent into a maelstrom.
We are seeing the irresponsibility and, excuse me for being blunt, stupidity of some Western politicians at its best. There is no logic or reasonable explanation for the conduct of the leaders of neighbouring countries, their truly morbid desire to walk the edge.
The President of Russia has very mildly described the aggravation of the situation in Donbass. Unfortunately, it is true. People there are ready to flee the area and are probably already fleeing, as we know. This is not normal. I have the impression that some politicians who hold high and responsible positions in the so-called free world are simply pathologically dangerous to both their associates and, most importantly, to their own people.
History was about to repeat itself.
Via @PaulEckstein - Notice the laughing Turk China sitting it out.
biggerThe OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported of February 18 2022 that the number of ceasefire violations had again increased significantly. Artillery exchanges took place along many parts of the front.
In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 591 ceasefire violations, including 553 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 222 ceasefire violations in the region.In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 975 ceasefire violations, including 860 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 648 ceasefire violations in the region.
Since Wednesday, February 16 2022, the number of ceasefire violations and explosions has increased every day.
The map shows explosions, the small black dots, on both sides of the ceasefire line. While only few of the hundreds of explosions were located and marked on the map a count of the black dots shows 56 impacts on the Donbas side and 22 on the government controlled side of the ceasefire line. The artillery exchanges seem to have become more uneven than before.
Posted by b on February 18, 2023 at 17:24 UTC | Permalink